[LINK] Telstra and China Mobile

David dlochrin at aussiebb.com.au
Tue Aug 3 15:10:15 AEST 2021


The Guardian statistics you quoted are surprising, I think, given the hugely differing circumstances of Taiwan & Australia.  It would be interesting to read the introduction to the poll question and the distribution of poll responses among various groups.

It seems China keeps a close watch on the Chinese diaspora in Australia and I'm sure the locals are well aware of it, so I'd expect that fact alone to skew responses one way or another.

Regarding the challenge you proposed, I'm not convinced public war-gaming is useful or even harmless.  If nothing else, such discussions provide insights into the thinking of various groups (educated Oz Linkers for example :-) which we can assume are duly digested by Big Artificially Intelligent Data.

But let me make these personal observations.

o	History shows that remote outposts of empire can be very dangerous unless the locals are on board.  For example, the British succeeded in India because (a) colonisation was an accepted practice among Western nations at the time and (b) the British - especially the East India Company - cleverly created a whole self-perpetuating Indian subculture of Administrators and economic beneficiaries.  This eventually came crashing down of course, and it has to be said the Brits took the slow collapse of their Empire (India, China, South Africa, etc...) with remarkably good grace!

o	But times have radically changed and I can't imagine why China would create a rod for its own back by attempting the same here now.  What would they gain?  Whatever the case, there's a long vulnerable stretch of unfriendly ocean in between and cyber warfare is a lot cheaper.

o	For the forseeable future every nation on the planet will be fully exercised in dealing with greenhouse warming and resulting economic and environmental crises.  I can't agree with your comment about Covid-19 either: greenhouse warming, sea-level rise, loss of biodiversity, (and possible future epidemics) will present far greater problems.

o	As many commentators have observed, any notion the Chinese President (or any future President) is unconstrained by internal opposition is unrealistic.  Much of China's current prosperity and Xie's popularity rests on China's external income.  To that extent, it's dependent on a stable international order.

Thanks for your response and kind words.  I worried that I may have been somehow responsible for the sudden collapse of discussion after such a vigorous beginning.

David Lochrin

On 2021-08-02 10:42, Stephen Loosley wrote:

> (News item: July 9th 2021, The Guardian)  <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/09/australians-fear-attack-from-china-almost-as-much-as-taiwanese-do-survey-finds>
> (Quote) “More than four in 10 Australians are worried China may attack Australia, according to new polling, expressing a level of fear that is nearly as high as among Taiwan’s population.. The Australia Institute, a progressive thinktank that commissioned polling in both Australia and Taiwan, said the findings are “astounding” ...
> “When the 603 people polled in Australia were asked whether they thought China would launch an armed attack on Australia, 6% said “soon” and 36% said “some time” – totalling 42%. When a similar question was asked of the 606 respondents in Taiwan – whether they thought China would launch an armed attack on Taiwan – 4% said soon and 47% said some time – or a total of 51% of the sample.  The proportion of the respondents who said “never” was 24% among Australians and 14% among Taiwanese, with the rest saying they were unsure or did not know. (End Quote)
> Given such an apparent level of concern here, then maybe we should be discussing Aussie options if China invades?
> And, offering China just such a compromise deal would perhaps be a sensible and mostly honourable pathway? We could never really hope to win any war against China. So now, maybe we should be actively considering alternatives?
> Much better than, as at present, keeping silent about this whole issue, and simply pretending it will never happen?
> If we talk about Australia’s possible options ahead of time, maybe we can find solutions before our war-mongers do?

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