[LINK] The Doherty Model
brendansweb at optusnet.com.au
Fri Aug 27 12:17:50 AEST 2021
On 27/8/21 1:59 am, Stephen Loosley wrote:
> The Doherty Model National Plan
> In other words ..
> The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase B daily infection rates will be after six months .. other than to note that the predicted infection rates will be something more than 60,000 people infected every day in Australia.
> On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully vaccinated, between 8% and 10% of Australians will die.
> That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison.
That is not how I read those figures.
The effectiveness is the percent reduction not the percent of population. So in the AZ 2 dose 90% case, if there would be 100 deaths among a given non-immunised population, there would be 10 deaths among the same population immunised. The mortality rate varies with age, but IIRC is about 1-3% across the board, so 2 dose of AZ for the population means we could expect mortality in the range of 0.1-0.3%.
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