[LINK] The Doherty Model
jwhit at internode.on.net
Fri Aug 27 13:04:05 AEST 2021
This was recommended by Alan Kohler.
Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.
On 27/08/2021 12:17 pm, Brendan wrote:
> On 27/8/21 1:59 am, Stephen Loosley wrote:
>> The Doherty Model National Plan
>> In other words ..
>> The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase B
>> daily infection rates will be after six months .. other than to note
>> that the predicted infection rates will be something more than 60,000
>> people infected every day in Australia.
>> On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully
>> vaccinated, between 8% and 10% of Australians will die.
>> That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison.
> That is not how I read those figures.
> The effectiveness is the percent reduction not the percent of
> population. So in the AZ 2 dose 90% case, if there would be 100 deaths
> among a given non-immunised population, there would be 10 deaths among
> the same population immunised. The mortality rate varies with age, but
> IIRC is about 1-3% across the board, so 2 dose of AZ for the
> population means we could expect mortality in the range of 0.1-0.3%.
> Link mailing list
> Link at anu.edu.au
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