[LINK] The Doherty Model

[Jan Whitaker]

This was recommended by Alan Kohler.

https://medium.com/@matt_11659/australian-public-fed-nonsense-as-country-heads-to-irreversible-decision-99350b80125c

Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.



On 27/08/2021 12:17 pm, Brendan wrote:
> On 27/8/21 1:59 am, Stephen Loosley wrote:
>> The Doherty Model National Plan
>>
>> In other words ..
>>
>> The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase B 
>> daily infection rates will be after six months ..  other than to note 
>> that the predicted infection rates will be something more than 60,000 
>> people infected every day in Australia.
>>
>> On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully 
>> vaccinated, between 8% and 10% of Australians will die.
>>
>> That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison.
>
> That is not how I read those figures.
> The effectiveness is the percent reduction not the percent of 
> population. So in the AZ 2 dose 90% case, if there would be 100 deaths 
> among a given non-immunised population, there would be 10 deaths among 
> the same population immunised. The mortality rate varies with age, but 
> IIRC is about 1-3% across the board, so 2 dose of AZ for the 
> population means we could expect mortality in the range of 0.1-0.3%.
> _______________________________________________
> Link mailing list
> Link at anu.edu.au
> https://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link