[LINK] The Doherty Model

Jan Whitaker jwhit at internode.on.net
Fri Aug 27 15:48:21 AEST 2021

I get that, too, but one thing he says is that there is only a 6 month 
period. Where's the rest of the year to take us back into a cold 
(autumn/winter) cycle? Is it that the model gets too nebulous so they 
can't predict any further ahead? Or is it too confronting for what's 
going to happen *after the election* (winter will be coming again)? And 
those assumptions are frightening given how NSW has so quickly broken.

And the immunity fall off - is that in there? We know that will happen 
here. It's already happening in other parts of the world.

Is there any economic modeling at all? Where? Who is doing that? Surely 
the people who do life insurance projections would be who you would ask? 
(can't remember what they are called, but it's something like the 
highest paid profession, starts with an a)

I'm not in the 'hopeless' mode. I want to believe this will adjust like 
flu did. But at least we need the full picture.

On 27/08/2021 3:17 pm, Brendan wrote:
> On 27/8/21 1:32 pm, Kate Lance wrote:
>> Wow Jan, I thought there must have been holes in the Doherty 
>> modelling, but
>> that's a great read - a breathtaking dissection of the problems, 
>> especially the
>> weird 180-day cutoff for the models.
> He makes much of it but I think the 180 day cut off on the graphs is 
> pretty much irrelevant. The graphs for eg. 70% coverage are not going 
> to be worse than for the 50% case.  The purpose of the graphs is to 
> show relative size of peaks and attack rates, which they do, even 
> though cut off. 

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