[LINK] The Doherty Model
brendansweb at optusnet.com.au
Fri Aug 27 16:36:54 AEST 2021
On 27/8/21 3:48 pm, Jan Whitaker wrote:
> I get that, too, but one thing he says is that there is only a 6 month period. Where's the rest of the year to take us back into a cold (autumn/winter) cycle? Is it that the model gets too nebulous so they can't predict any further ahead? Or is it too confronting for what's going to happen *after the election* (winter will be coming again)? And those assumptions are frightening given how NSW has so quickly broken.
> And the immunity fall off - is that in there? We know that will happen here. It's already happening in other parts of the world.
> Is there any economic modeling at all? Where? Who is doing that? Surely the people who do life insurance projections would be who you would ask? (can't remember what they are called, but it's something like the highest paid profession, starts with an a)
> I'm not in the 'hopeless' mode. I want to believe this will adjust like flu did. But at least we need the full picture.
Unfortunately, we will never know the full picture. For example, any modelling that we had before December had to be thrown out when the Delta variant arrived. I haven't read the full report, but I assume they have to cut off somewhere, and 6 months is where they landed. It may be that errors begin compounding after that point?
I have to say I'm disappointed with the media coverage. Too much catastrophising and fomenting division.
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