[LINK] My predictions for 2008

[Stilgherrian]

On 31/12/07 5:32 PM, "Jan Whitaker" <jwhit at melbpc.org.au> wrote:

> At 02:57 PM 31/12/2007, grove at zeta.org.au wrote:
>> 10) Television finally "gets" the Internet, with new shows and
>> promos being simulcast on all media with private "TVtubes" provided
>> by the media companies themselves and sponsored by the admedia.   6
>> months later, the first feature film is released at the box office
>> and the Internet, simultaneously.
> 
> I like this one. I wonder if there will also be a cross-border block
> lifted between AU and US. I've found that I can't access many
> programs from the US networks, presumably because of being off shore.

Well, yes, this will happen just as soon as someone re-structures the entire
contractual and financial basis of how movies and television programs are
created, produced, distributed and paid for -- including how we pay for the
writers, directors, performers, editors, crew, advertisers, distributors and
marketers.

In other words, not any time soon.

Anyone who predicts this will be rapid is drastically underestimating the
complexity.

Consider just the way an actor or other performer is paid...

Usually, you get paid to do *something* (play a role in a drama, sing one
song), and you sell the rights to that performance to be on-sold into a
certain "territory" (e.g. "television in Australia") for a certain period
(e.g. "one broadcast plus one repeat, plus associated on-air promos related
to same"). The fee will be some mix of a base fee (possibly zero) plus a
percentage of gross profits (possibly zero).

Sell the program into a different territory, e.g. export a TV program to the
US, and everyone will want a cut of those profits too. Or if someone wants
to re-run the program. Or if extracts are used in a "best-of" special 10
years down the track.

Only beginners and fools sign away their global rights for all time for a
flat fee, because you never know when something might become a run-away hit.
Conversely, the stars can charge a massive flat fee and a decent percentage
because they know their involvement will pull a certain audience.

Now until just recently, a broadcaster could see how a program went in one
market before negotiating the deals for further markets. But if you want
instant worldwide distribution in all media (i.e. delivered by broadcast or
thru the pipes), then everyone has to be confident enough to have all their
negotiations in place up front.

This is not *impossible* as such, but it completely changes the landscape.

This is not a technical issue -- at least it wouldn't be if A Certain Large
Australian Telco had their ducks in a row. It's all about the contracts.

Happy New Year,

Stil


-- 
Stilgherrian http://stilgherrian.com/
Internet, IT and Media Consulting, Sydney, Australia
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