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[Birch, Jim]

> Early is an abstract concept.

True but the problem is more that "firestorm" is - or was - an abstract
concept.  If people had much of idea about what was coming, and how
fast, coming to grips with "early" might have been be relatively easy.

Untrained people can't do risk assessment on low frequency events very
well.  They tend to get carried along with a narrative and either
totally overestimate the risk, eg sharks, or imagine that it can't
happen, as we've just seen in the global economic crisis and, of course,
the fires.

The solutions that I see are education, regulation, and, unfortunately,
expecting failures.  The government always cops flak for regulation -
like "you can't build in this idyllic spot without spending an extra
$XX,000 on fireproofing" - so it requires an uncommon kind of effort to
sustain, police and improve safety standards. 

Jim   


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