[LINK] The Doherty Model

[Kate Lance]

Wow Jan, I thought there must have been holes in the Doherty modelling, but
that's a great read - a breathtaking dissection of the problems, especially the
weird 180-day cutoff for the models. 

Thanks, Kate


On Fri, Aug 27, 2021 at 01:04:05PM +1000, Jan Whitaker wrote:
> This was recommended by Alan Kohler.
> 
> https://medium.com/@matt_11659/australian-public-fed-nonsense-as-country-heads-to-irreversible-decision-99350b80125c
> 
> Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.
> 
> 
> 
> On 27/08/2021 12:17 pm, Brendan wrote:
> > On 27/8/21 1:59 am, Stephen Loosley wrote:
> > > The Doherty Model National Plan
> > > 
> > > In other words ..
> > > 
> > > The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase
> > > B daily infection rates will be after six months ..  other than to
> > > note that the predicted infection rates will be something more than
> > > 60,000 people infected every day in Australia.
> > > 
> > > On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully
> > > vaccinated, between 8% and 10% of Australians will die.
> > > 
> > > That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison.
> > 
> > That is not how I read those figures.
> > The effectiveness is the percent reduction not the percent of
> > population. So in the AZ 2 dose 90% case, if there would be 100 deaths
> > among a given non-immunised population, there would be 10 deaths among
> > the same population immunised. The mortality rate varies with age, but
> > IIRC is about 1-3% across the board, so 2 dose of AZ for the population
> > means we could expect mortality in the range of 0.1-0.3%.
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