[Sres-postdocs] SRES Morning Tea / Seminar

[Zosha Smith]

1. SRES Wed Morning Tea, today at 10.45am in John Banks Court.

2.Seminar notice just received :
BRS SEMINAR SERIES WITH ABARE & THE AUSTRALIAN 
AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS SOCIETY 
PRESENTS:
Friday 21 July 2006 : 11.00am-12:00noon (morning tea at 10:45am)
Info-gap Theory and Applications in Biological 
Conservation and Resource Management
Yakov Ben-Haim - Israel Institute of Technology
Information-gap Decision Theory presents a fresh 
approach to the age-old problem of decision 
making with deficient information. An info-gap is 
the disparity between what is known and what 
needs to be known in order to make a well-rounded 
decision.

In this seminar we consider the evaluation and 
selection of policy under severe uncertainty, 
including:
·       Why we cannot deduce probabilities from 
our ignorance about the systems we wish to model 
and control, and why we shouldn't even try.
·       Info-gap models for representing severe 
uncertainty such as unknown model-errors, 
uncertain spatial distributions and unknown 
probabilities of rare events.
  ·       A simplified policy selection problem 
demonstrating the robustness-premium for 
sub-optimal policy.
·       Info-gap robustness as a proxy for 
probability of success. We often do not know the 
relevant probability distributions, so we cannot 
calculate the probability of policy success. 
However, our proxy theorems show that we are 
(sometimes) able to choose a policy which 
maximises the probability of success (though we 
don't know what that probability is).
Edmund Barton Conference Centre (in the courtyard)
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Edmund Barton Building
Kings Avenue, Canberra
Bookings not required.
Parking can be a problem, we suggest taking public transport or a taxi.
For further details, please call the BRS Seminar 
Coordinator on 6272 4011. For further information 
on BRS Seminars or to obtain papers/presentations 
supplied by previous seminar presenters, please 
visit our website at: 
<http://www.brs.gov.au/brsseminars>www.brs.gov.au/brsseminars
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